Business strategy with purpose and perspective - why work with scenarios?
Is your business ready for the future in an unpredictable world? A solid business strategy is good – but scenarios make it stronger. Scenario planning brings responsibility, sustainability and innovation into play – and strengthens both corporate direction and resilience.
When a new year begins, many companies look ahead: New goals. New ambitions. New strategies.
But in a world shaped by climate crisis, geopolitical instability, new regulation, AI breakthroughs, and growing activism, it’s no longer enough to ask: “What do we want to achieve – and how do we make money?”
We also need to ask: “How can we contribute – and still stand strong in a future we cannot predict?”
This is where scenario planning becomes your strategic superpower.
Strategy gives direction. Scenarios build resilience.
Strategy is about setting a clear course and taking action.
Scenario planning is about exploring and preparing for multiple futures.
👉 Strategy = What we want
👉 Scenarios = What could happen
The two approaches go hand in hand. Scenario planning often comes before – or runs parallel to – strategy development, to ensure that your strategy is future-fit.
With scenarios, you don’t just get a plan.
You get a solid foundation for making your strategy more resilient – and ready to seize opportunities, even in turbulent times.
It all starts with understanding the trends
A great place to begin your scenario work is with trends – mega, macro, micro. They reveal the shifts already happening – and signal what’s to come.
Some examples of key change drivers shaping the future:
⚖️ Growing ESG regulation – and anti-ESG backlash
💡 Technological breakthroughs
🦋 The biodiversity crisis
🔍 New demands for ethics and purpose
🛒 Conscious consumers
🌍 Geopolitical conflicts
With trends as your starting point, you can build scenarios that are not wild guesses – but credible, strategic tools.
Get started in 3 steps
Identify change drivers and trends
What’s happening in the world that could impact your business in 5–15 years?
(Read trend reports, interview stakeholders, talk to your customers)
Develop 3-4 scenarios
What if markets shift? New tech takes over? Regulation tightens? The world becomes more fragmented?
Acid-test your current strategy
What stands – and what cracks – if these scenarios become reality? Is your vision, direction and business model resilient across multiple futures?
Case: Ethical Trade Denmark
At Ethical Trade Denmark, we worked with trends and scenario planning as a foundation for setting a new strategic direction.
Based on our tailored trend review, we developed three future scenarios:
⚖️ The Regulated World
⛓️💥 The Fragmented World
🌱 The Regenerative World
The result?
A structured framework that the board used to explore how the organisation could best position itself to create value for both its members and society at large.
Scenario planning – not just for futurists
Scenario planning isn’t just for think tanks or academics.
It’s a practical tool to engage your board, leadership team, ESG professionals and key employees in aligning future, business and purpose.
What do you see as the biggest uncertainties in your operating environment? How might they shape your industry in the years to come?
Is your sustainable business strategy future-ready – or is it time for a scenario check?
Ready to connect strategy and scenarios?
At TANIA ELLIS – The Social Business Company, we help organisations develop innovative and sustainable strategies that create value for both society and the bottom line.
We design and facilitate workshops and trend sessions that bring strategy and scenario thinking together – in a way that is engaging, practical and action-oriented.
Learn more at www.taniaellis.com/consulting
This article is also available in Danish: “Forretningsstrategi med fremsyn og formål – derfor skal du arbejde med scenarier“.
